After delving into the world of YouTube over the last couple of months, I have made the decision to return to this column to share my selections, and thoughts for the upcoming racing. That doesn’t mean that I am completely ditching the YouTube side of things, quite the opposite, and those videos will still be available for those that prefer their content in a more concise fashion, but I will aim to be posting these columns on a Tuesday evening looking ahead to the upcoming weekends racing, with updates to follow later in the week, usually on a Friday.
That does mean, though, that the Daily Selections side of this page will be put on the back burner for some time.
Anyway, on with the racing, and I don’t know if you heard, but the Flat is back, apparently, as Doncaster hosts the curtain raiser with their Lincoln card this weekend.
Doncaster
There are a couple of good races on the card at Doncaster on Saturday prior to the big race at 3:35, but before getting into those I suppose it would be worth giving the ground a mention. The latest going stick reading pointed towards soft ground at Doncaster, which should be of little surprise following the downpours we saw last week. That being said, living roughly 20 minutes away from the course, I can report that aside from a heavy shower this morning, which lasted for around half an hour, the weather by and large has been mild and windy over the last couple of days, and the forecast looks similar for the remainder of the week. Despite this prediction, considering the amount of rainfall we have seen over the last couple of weeks, I can’t see this being enough to drastically change the going reading all that much before we get to Saturday. Soft ground horses will be where I am looking.
The first horse that caught my eye was Alpha Crucis in the 2:25 William Hill Spring Mile, over the straight mile. Whilst he is unexposed at this level, having never raced in anything higher in class than a Class 3 contest, in which he was well beaten on both occasions, in truth, this Gary Moore trained horse should relish conditions. A look at his best runs under rules, and his only two wins to date, have both come over this trip and on soft ground. Aside from these wins, he ran very well at Epsom last April, on identical conditions to those likely to face this weekend, when beaten a length. Aside from the ground and trip being in his favour, it is also a positive that he comes here fresh, given that both of his wins have come off the back of absences of over 130 days, at least, and this being his first run since Newmarket in November would therefore need to be considered a positive, for sure. Whilst the Gary Moore stable are hardly firing on all cylinders, an 8% strike rate over the last two weeks, I’m sure that Alpha Crucis will be a big enough price to overlook this point, and focus on the positives already mentioned.
The listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes follows at 15:00, over 6f, and whilst I am prepared to overlook the Gary Moore stable form in return for a healthy price, hopefully, I am not prepared to take the same gamble on the George Boughey trained Baradar who currently ops the market at 9/4. Boughey currently operates at a 7% strike rate, and I can make several other cases to take on the top of the market. He has been beaten on every occasion that he has stepped out of Class 2 company, and he has been beaten on all three of his runs off the back of a lengthy absence, of at least 130 days anyway.
On the flip side, Marshman, who represents the Karl Burke stable, ticks those boxes that the favourite doesn’t. I think it is firstly quite important to remember that the market was very much on this horses side when he stepped into Group 2 company at York in May 2023, in the Duke of York Clipper Stakes, and at Chantilly in June, in the Prix du Gros-Chene, when he went off a well supported favourite on both occasions. This market confidence in races of a much deeper nature, at a higher level also, would suggest that he is more than capable dropping back down in Class to start his campaign. There in which lies another positive, his effectiveness when fresh. He was a winner on his racecourse debut at Ayr back in the summer of 2022, and he won his seasonal reappearance Chantilly last April, in Group 3 company I might add, off the back of a 205 day absence. The return here after a slight longer absence offers little concern, nor does the ground, having posted his second highest RPR, when running to 111 last April, on soft ground. The combination of the 6f trip and soft ground may concern some, but it is worth remembering that his sire, Harry Angel, was a 6f winner on heavy ground. Finally, the Karl Burke stable enter this opening weekend in fine form, with a 25% strike rate over the last two weeks. In conclusion, I think that 3/1 is far too big.
Moving on to the feature of Saturdays racing at Doncaster, the Lincoln, over a mile. When dealing with big field handicaps, in both codes, either flat or jumps, I find it helpful to establish a certain set of criteria to help narrow the field down. For example, I would be particularly keen on those horses with have shown their form in big field handicaps on soft ground. Further on from that, you can then look at race specific trends, like the following.
Since 1965, only 3 of the 57 winners have been aged 7 or older.
Only 1 of the last 11 winners went off as favourite, with 8 of these 11 winners going off at odds of 12/1 or bigger.*
8 of the last 11 winners carried between 9st 0lbs and 9st 4lbs.*
9 of the last 11 winners were rated 99 or higher.*
10 of the last 11 winners had at least 5 runs on the flat, and 3 wins on the flat.*
*Stats provided by The Stats Don’t Lie
Having taken the above into consideration, I have managed to narrow the field down to two potential candidates, the first of which is the Andrew Balding trained Vetiver. A couple of potential negatives to deal with first of all. Firstly, she doesn’t necessarily tick all of the boxes outlined above, given that he is rated 98. To caveat that fact, though, I would point out that he rates higher than both Brae Hill, when he won the 2012 renewal of this race, and Levitate who won the following year. Secondly, he does also hold an entry for the listed Doncaster Mile Stakes earlier on the card, so we can not be 100% certain on what his intended target is, making him somewhat of a risky ante post bet at this point.
The positives, on the other hand, well there are plenty to shout about. She showed good form in a big field handicap at Ascot towards the end of October, when finishing 5th of 20 runners, and certainly outrunning his odds of 25/1 on the day. That Ascot race may hold the key to this contest on Saturday, as I will elaborate later, but Vetiver was beaten a little over 2 lengths, with the likes of Ropey Guest, now rated 101, Docklands, now rated 105, and Bopedro, now rated 100, finishing in front. The form in behind isn’t too bad either when comparing it to the likely field of the Lincoln on Saturday, with current market favourite Awaal well beaten in 12th.
Considering the competitive nature of that Ascot handicap, I must admit that I thought Vetiver was fortunate to escape with an unchanged handicap mark, 98.
Looking at other positives, this horse was a winner first time out last season when winning at Beverley in April, and she has form at a higher level than thins contest, having won a listed contest at Carlisle, and placed in Group 3 company here at Doncaster in September.
Whilst she boasts good form on soft ground, in a big field, and even here at Doncaster, I do wonder if considering that her three wins under rules so far have come in races with 10 or less runners, if connections maybe tempted to go for the smaller field target earlier on the card, and for this reason I can not advise her as an ante post bet at this point. Time will tell, but I would be interested to follow her no matter her eventual race.
Aside from Vetiver, I am also quietly confident that The Gatekeeper will run a big race at a fair price. I referenced that competitive Ascot handicap over this trip towards the end of last season earlier, well that race was won by The Gatekeeper. He was a relatively comfortable winner of that race, and given the strength of the form in behind, I think that the 4lb rise to a career high mark of 100 is both justifiable and achievable. Particularly when you consider that on three of the six occasions that The Gatekeeper has run to a RPR of 100 or higher, there has been some element of ease in the ground.
With this in mind, alongside his previous performances in a big field, having won at Ascot, obviously, and at finished second of 20 runners at Goodwood in August, I am confident that he will relish conditions.
Charlie Johnston’s horses have started the season in reasonable form, currently returning a 13% strike rate over the last two weeks, which is not going to set the world alight, but it is certainly a move in the right direction. It certainly won’t be putting me off having an ante post play at 25/1 with Coral.
Newbury
With the Cheltenham Festival now behind us, and with the return of the Flat in the shape of the Lincoln, you could be forgiven for assuming that the National Hunt season was over. That, however, is simply not the case, we still have Aintree, Fairyhouse, and Punchestown to look forward to look forward for. Whilst the card at Newbury is not quite as exciting as those upcoming festivals, there are still a couple of nice horses on show that I would like to highlight.
The first of these comes in the 2:10, which is a class 3 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, over 2m 3f, and I am particularly fond of Jamie Snowden’s Idy Wood. I particularly like the angle of this horse stepping back down in class, given that he finished third in Grade 2 company at Kempton last time out, behind Lump Sum.
The over positive angle here would be that he is stepping back up in trip to an intermediate trip, over which he enjoyed success at Plumpton back in January, in identical conditions.
His strong finishing effort at Hexham over 2 miles on heavy ground in November, and the fact that he is a graduate from the point to point field is another pointer to suggest that he is full of stamina, and this step back up in trip should certainly be beneficial, of that I am confident.
Finally, the Jamie Snowden are in fine form, as well, with a 21% strike rate over the last two weeks.
bet365 is a stand out 14/1 and I think that is a more than fair price given the positives pointed out above.
Moving onto the 2:40 at Newbury, which is a Class 2 Handicap Chase, over 2m 4f. I have already mentioned the form of Gary Moore’s stable in this column, and I am not going to going over that ground again, whilst it is worth consideration, I do like Hudson De Grugy here. I think you can overlook his first two runs this season with relative ease, considering that his reappearance run at Sandown in December came over 1m 7f, and his following run at Sandown in February came over 3 miles, whereas he returned to a degree of form last time out when stepping back down to 2m 4f, the trip over which I would argue he is at his best.
Remarkably, he was dropped 1lb to a mark of 121 following his three length defeat last time out, when he finished third behind the now 126 rated Jet Plane, and the 126 rated Can You Call. A fair third, you would have to say, especially when you consider that he returning to his preferred going on Saturday, on soft ground.
Looking back to his reappearance run at Sandown, even that third looks relatively fair, when you consider that the winner, Mount Tempest, is now rated 11lb higher.
Furthermore, he is now rated lower than when he won a Grade 3 handicap at Sandown last March. In fact, this could me the best time to get onside with Hudson De Grugy, given that he has won twice in March, and placed twice in the month of March.
Whilst 14/1, best price at the time of writing with William Hill, is tempting, I would imagine there will be plenty of extra places available, so it maybe worth keeping your powder dry.
I will, of course, post further updates tomorrow, Thursday, following declarations and provide a brief overview on my YouTube tomorrow evening, a link too which can be found below. I would be grateful if you would be kind enough to subscribe, and give me a follow on Twitter, @RacingTjw.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6R750KVYjE31X5uRgpOzHA.
Updated Thursday 21 March 2023.
It is a relief to see that both The Gatekeeper and Vetiver were declared by connections for Saturdays feature at Doncaster, the Lincoln. Whilst we took 25/1 about The Gatekeeper earlier in the week, I would not discourage you from taking 11/1 with seven places payable on Sky Bet.
With little detriment, we held out on Vetiver until her intended target was confirmed. 14/1 with seven places payable on Sky Bet still makes her a fair each way proposition considering her form on soft ground and in a big field.
No other surprises really from Doncaster, Marshman runs and there hasn’t been any movement on his price as of yet.
Our cautious approach paid off at Newbury, with Hudson De Grugy not being declared, whereas our bold approach on Idy Wood has proven worthy, with the 14/1 advised long gone.
Fresh Bets
With the interest of saving time, I am not going to go into too much detail with my Fresh Bets ahead of the weekend, and would encourage you to watch my YouTube preview to accompany this column which will go live shortly for more details.
That being said, I do think Stuart Crawford’s Condesa is overpriced, 25/1 with five places available at bet365, in the 15:15 at Newbury. You would have to be concerned about the stable form, there is no getting away from that, not only has he not had a winner in his last 16 runners, but his horses have been performing well under par. Crawford’s hurdles form for the season, on this side of the Irish Sea would make for a little more encouragement, 17% since last April.
Condesa certainly bounced back to some degree of form last time out, when finishing second at Sedgefield, beaten only a length behind Springtime Promise, who has since gone on to win a Graded level, and is now rated 134. This form, in particular makes her mark of 123 look fairly lenient.
Her strongest form aside from that strong second last time out is when she finished third in a listed bumper at Fairyhouse back in 2021. She was beaten only five lengths, with the winner Party Central now rated 140 over hurdles. Limerick Lace was well down the field that day, and she has certainly established her over fences since, now rated 154.
Final Selections
15:00 Doncaster - Marshman - 1 point win @ 3/1 (AP) 15:35 Doncaster - The Gatekeeper - 0.5 points each way @ 25/1 (AP) 15:35 Doncaster - Vetiver - 0.5 points each way @ 14/1 (SkyBet seven places) 14:10 Newbury - Idy Wood - 0.5 points each way @ 14/1 (AP) 15:15 Newbury - Condesa - 0.5 points each way @ 25/1 (bet365 five places)